This match will begin on October 1, 2022 at 3 p.m. and will be played at the Diego Armando Maradona (Naples). Naples is ranked first in the Italian Championship and Torino is ranked ninth prior to their matchup. Over the past 116 years, since 1946, these two teams have squared off 116 times, with the most recent meeting ending in a 1-0 victory for Naples on May 7, 2022. (Italian Championship – 36th day: 1-0).
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Hennion:
This handicap should be based on a previous Serie A match, and the most recent one featured both Inter and Torino. Torino, the underdog on the road, created no big chances but held the Nerazzurri to just two on home turf. In addition, I'm using Torino's away game against Atalanta as a data point for my analysis of their attack. Torino, the underdog away team, had no quality scoring opportunities in that match.
And since Napoli are tied for first in Serie A in expected goals (xG) against at home, I doubt Torino will add much to the total here. Torino's defence should be able to contain a Napoli offence without its star player, Victor Osimhen. Finally, the under has a strong track record of success in this matchup. The total number of goals scored in the four most recent and six of the seven most recent matches involving these teams has been under 2.5.
Choose a scoreline of fewer than 2.5 goals.
Cunningham:
The interesting aspect of this game is that the oddsmakers are aware of Union Berlin's extreme over-performance. what I don't think should be the case is a plus money BTTS-No line for a Union Berlin match against a team outside of the top four.
Union Berlin has scored 15 goals on 5.7 expected goals. That's four goals against on just 6.7 expected goals for. Their low block in their 3-5-2 system has been effective, and their defence is just as good as it was last year. However, I'd like to run through their offensive stats once more: Inside-the-box attempts: 45 (15th in Bundesliga). Scores on Progressive Exams: 170 (16th in Bundesliga). PPDA: 16.1 (18th in Bundesliga) (18th in Bundesliga). A lot of changes: 39 (18th in Bundesliga). Number of successful crosses into the penalty area: 24 (1st in Bundesliga).
Frankfurt's offence is average, scoring 14 goals on 9.7 expected goals while 3.1 of those expected goals came from a single lucky match against RB Leipzig. That means that in their other six games, they have only managed to score 6.6 xG. Five of Frankfurt's goals have come from direct free kicks or corner kicks. Looking for the Bundesliga's best set piece defence? Union Berlin, whose rules stipulate a maximum of 0.05 xG for each piece of furniture, is the culprit here. My projected BTTS-No line value is -125, so the current line value of +110 appeals to me.
Opt for a No on Both Teams Scoring (+110).
Pund:
I don't see a lot of scoring potential in this match between Southampton and Everton because neither team is particularly good at creating scoring opportunities. According to fbref.com, the Saints are ranked dead last in the Premier League in xG (6.1), and they are also in the bottom half of the league in shots on goal per game (2.86), and goals scored per shot (0.41). (0.09). The average xG scored in their league games adds up to only 1.957, so they have also played in some lower-event matches.
Meanwhile, the Toffees' offence has been abysmal, ranking only 16th in goals scored, 18th in goals per shot, and 18th in total big scoring chances created (five). Despite the fact that Everton's games have yielded the fewest goals in the English Premier League (1.57), this strategy has been successful in every single one. This is bad news for a team that will soon be travelling to face a Southampton team that has allowed only 7.6 xG all season. Even though it probably won't be the most exciting game of the day, this is my pick.
Choose a scoreline of fewer than 2.5 goals.
Content Source
- https://www.actionnetwork.com/soccer/saturday-soccer-odds-expert-picks-best-bets-napoli-torino-september-31
- https://lookcharms.com/napoli-torino-to-follow-live-serie-a-01-10-2022/
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